Steve Ankerstar: (00:00)
Hello everyone. Steve Ankerstar here. And thank you so much for listening in. Well, we had another rough day in the market, so that’s what we’re going to talk about in this video down a little over 6%. So it was pretty significant move. And as you know, I don’t put out videos on updates you know, cheerleading in the market, but I only put them out on down days and it’s been a while. It’s like, what is this March all over again? So we’re going to talk about some of the factors that caused the big sell off today, and more importantly, what’s going to happen tomorrow and how to position ourselves for the future. So with that, let me get to the disclaimer. First, I’m going to share out a screen with you.
Speaker 1: (00:38)
All right. There’s my contact information. I like to call this positioning for the election, which I saw another headline earlier today, called time to cover your assets. I thought that was pretty cute. So not an original that belongs to somebody else, but I thought it was good enough to put on this, on the title here. So, but there’s my information. There’s my disclaimer. If you’re not a current client of afterburner financial, then you have to do your own due diligence before you act on anything you hear in this presentation. But with that, let’s go ahead and get started. Okay. Here’s where we are as far as the past year. So that’s what you’re looking at is one year from left to right, we were climbing right along there until things were going well, we entered 2020. We were still on the market up Margaret.
Speaker 1: (01:25)
It was on the upswing. The things I was talking about with clients on January in January was the election. It’s like, well, we can probably continue up for awhile. And then at some point there’s going to be uncertainty and back into the market and, you know, Mark and Saida uncertainty. And at that point, we’re going to have to really take a hard look at whether or not we want to stay long or put some portfolio and protection in place for the election. Well, that was kind of the game plan going in. And then COVID-19 happened slowly but surely. And then all of a sudden they’re in March when it had the big sell off all the way down to the March 23rd low, if you’ve been watching my videos all along, I said that was an overreaction to the downside. That turns out to have been correct.
Speaker 1: (02:10)
And then people want to argue all day long about what sort of shape of recovery we’re having. But you can figure that letter out for yourself. I only know that it looks like a bee, but other people see other things, but that’s where we’ve been. And it’s important to think when you come all the way over here to the bright here is the move down from today. So a pretty significant drop, but when you zoom out and that’s why I like to show this picture first, when you zoom out, it puts it all in perspective. So if you were to take the 300 level and kind of go all the way across, we’re where we were not quite at the beginning of the year, cause we’re now negative for the year, but where we were in November, December of last year, before all this stuff happened.
Speaker 1: (02:51)
So from a bigger perspective, it’s not the end of the world. Now of course, the big question is what happens from here. But while we’re on this chart, I do want you to take a look at the volume. We had the big volume in February, March, that’s, March. That’s that big, if you will, camel hump of volume there. And then of course we saw a volume spike today, which is not uncommon on big moves down. So a lot of people, I think we’re taking profits today, but a lot of action in the market. And of course it just fell off all the way through the day. If you look at indicators, I don’t talk about these too much, cause I don’t really use them, but I do pay attention to them because I know others do RSI went from an oversold all the way back to the slightly undersold conditions.
Speaker 1: (03:29)
So pretty significant move down in the RSI just from today. So what we’re going to take a look at now is the chart at the bottom is where I want you to focus your eyes. That is a 20 day chart. So it’s a little, it’s more zoomed in on the recovery. And the recovery has been pretty good for several days in a row, a little bit spoiled again, right? We don’t want to be spoiled. We want to know that there will always rain in paradise and that there were always be big down days like this, but you will see that the, for the most part, the market takes the stairway up and the elevator down. And that’s exactly what we saw here. You saw some congestion over the past three or four days can by congestion. I mean, we, we were, I kind of moved up pretty significantly and then stayed in that same area for a few days.
Speaker 1: (04:16)
And then basically straight down from the futures this morning, all the way through the day into the the close and the good news is there was a slight bounce of the closed. This chart was from about an hour ago. So a few hours into the futures for tomorrow. So we’ll see kind of what tomorrow holds as far as you can see the breaking news up at the top. There that’s a clip from cnbc.com. The future’s rise, 200 points. So we’ll see it has been a buy the debt market for about 10 years. It was especially a buy the dip after it went down 35% in March. So the March 23rd lows, I don’t see that happening again. We’re going to talk about some of the headlines on the next slide and the things we have to think about, but as we zoom out, it’s really not about what’s in front of us in the next week or two.
Speaker 1: (05:05)
It’s more about what are the longterm things. So one longterm thing is in the lower left there, you see the white squares about the spending, the bills do come due at some point. So probably the most illustrative situation is to think back to all of the trillions. We put into the global financial recession in 2007 and 2009. And all of the, we had interest rates at zero. Like we do now, lots of stimulus QE one, two, three, four. I think there was a five that float in a little bit later after the recession was technically over. So we may see that pattern again with what we’re dealing with now with the COVID-19 cell off. So it all comes down as to what to do. So I’m talking about what I’m doing with my client portfolios. I reached out to several people today. I started last week actually with some of the, some of the bigger accounts, as far as how to position them Mmm.
Speaker 1: (06:01)
For the election. So when I met with folks starting last Friday, it’s the, there’s going to be a lot of ups and downs and volatility between now and the election. But let’s talk about the two potential outcomes for the election and how we want to position our portfolio. So we’re okay with either results. So this is not to get political. I’m not trying to make an election call. I’m telling you as a portfolio manager, you have to be prepared for either results. And if you remember going back into the 2016 election, I was not prepared for either the result. I thought there was no way Trump would win. However, the mainstream media had painted a picture that there was no way that he could win. I believed them. And then Trump won, which means I had a lot of work to do the next day.
Speaker 1: (06:43)
I, and several other people that had called the election wrong and had to turn around and go risk on with the portfolios. So we really have to think about the same thing going into the election and what you do, exactly what your portfolio is. More of a conversation. There’s several things to be able to do, to put portfolio protection in place. What, what I want, you know, depending on your risk tolerance and your goals, and whether you’re trying to make money or preserve your money or live off your money, depending on which state state of life you’re in. But that’s the goal is have that conversation. So if you haven’t heard from me yet, you’re going to hear from you soon and made some moves in portfolios today. If you saw some things showing up that you probably haven’t seen before, that’s a bond fund which I started putting into buffer some of the volatility out of everybody’s portfolios for the next four and a half, five months until we really see what we have on our hands after the election.
Speaker 1: (07:37)
So the big picture here, don’t sweat tomorrow. Tomorrow. Honestly, it can go either way. I would not even touch the call tomorrow. I, yeah. If I have somebody forced me into a call, I think we sell off again. I think we sell off into the weekend. However, I also know that there’s plenty of forces out there. The fed doing everything they can, money has to go somewhere. It’s like water. It has to go somewhere. There are no other alternatives. You don’t make much in bonds. And people are a little bit scared of bonds from what happened in March. When I promised them that bonds were safe and they weren’t because everybody sold everything under the sun. So diversification didn’t save anybody. It all sold off. I don’t see that happen again. So I don’t mind moving into bonds here as a portfolio protection, but the big issue is anything could happen tomorrow.
Speaker 1: (08:21)
Monday, there could be headlines that move the markets. You see the big issues that are at play there. COVID-19 and the resurgent wave the aftershocks second wave, whatever you want to call it, there’s going to be not only the facts, which are a little sketchy and they have been sketchy through this whole thing. There’s the facts to deal with. And then there’s Nope, both sides out there that I would say are almost vested and I’m not talking politically. And that carries over into political, but both sides of whether COBIT is as nasty note COVID-19 is this nasty thing, or it’s no big deal. Both of those parties are trying desperately to defend themselves. So if that conversation happens on Facebook, like every day that everybody’s a medical expert now, but you have your opinion, you can watch it on TV and say all that plays out.
Speaker 1: (09:12)
It’s still a major issue. So we’ll see, we don’t know the end of that movie, the social unrest situation is obviously a big deal. It’s brought the conversation to the forefront. A lot of people are taking action to help, try to make things better. However, there’s a violent piece to it. That’s more of where the markets could potentially react. If violence continues, then you’re starting to talk economic damage, generally not much of the market mover, unless it goes to a major scale. And of course, if it goes to, even if it’s peaceful, if it continues to go in what I would say, the wrong direction or a more divisive direction, then that’s going to build some more uncertainty into the markets, which you can see the market moving more, not necessarily straight down, but more volatility day to day of the trading that’s going place.
Speaker 1: (10:01)
And lastly, I talked about it, alluded to it already about the debt we’ve spent trillions, and we’re looking at another way of, of stimulus, potentially sending out checks to everybody again. So I don’t care where you fall on that issue of whether you think we should, or we shouldn’t in the big picture. That’s almost a drop in the bucket compared to what we spent already. And as we know as well, we’re all busy adulting. That bills do come due. And at some point we’re going to have to pay those off. Folks have asked me pretty much daily about inflation and how to prepare for it. Well, there’s no other alternative to prepare for inflation other than you have to get in the stock market because the stock market will have flight right in flight, right along with inflation. If you, you can’t hide and CDs, obviously in cash, you’re gonna lose purchasing power.
Speaker 1: (10:48)
If you go into bonds, bonds will still pay out exactly what they said. They were going to pay out, but it’s not going to be anything compared to a eight to 10%, you know, inflation rate. If that happens, I don’t see that. But if it does, there’s not going to be any other place in the book, then the hide other than equities. So we’ll talk more about that a lot. Obviously, if that starts to happen, I do not think it will, everybody that everybody’s saying the exact same thing now that they were saying in 2009. Oh, and gee, we spent so much money. Whoa is us. We’re going broke into world is ending us is doomed. Okay. I hear you. And I am concerned about the debt and I need to make sure that we’re making, you know, I, we need to make sure adults are in charge that are at least acknowledging it and somewhat paying attention to it possibly after we heal a little bit more from what we just, yeah.
Speaker 1: (11:37)
So that’s on the radar scope, obviously out of 20 2009, we didn’t have any inflation. So I kind of think we’ll follow the same path. I don’t have a crystal ball, but that’s at least what I’m planning for. And if that changes, then we obviously will change our, so if you’ve I put on here, don’t be greedy and then took it down because I didn’t want to have that on the slide. But you have to remember, we’re a little bit spoiled going into almost 10 years of a straight, straight up market, took a blur punch in the face in 2016, December of 2018 fell almost 20%. So we’ve seen some moves down. And then of course we had March of 2020. That was the big punch to the face. But as long as you stayed, the course did some [inaudible] of your portfolio to pivot it towards the work from home space.
Speaker 1: (12:25)
You’re probably up if not significantly off, if you are, unfortunately in the retirement phase where you’re relying on bonds and income from big dividend and the big dividend payers, as well as of course, individual bonds or bond funds, those got hit. So you have not recovered if that’s the case, the bond market is healing slowly, but it does continue to heal, which is the good. So now kind of the time of, you know, we just made hundreds of percent over the past decade. If you’ve participated this entire time, now’s not the time to really get greedy for the next eight to 10%. Now it’s time to put a, put some floors in, put some protection in place and to preserve your capital at least, or the election markets hate uncertainty. Once we have the next president, no matter whether it’s one of the two running or somebody that comes in from left field, we’ve seen no anything can happen.
Speaker 1: (13:16)
So once we know who the next president is, and then of course markets will settle back down as the digest, what that, how that’s gonna affect business taxes, standing all of those things. So if you want to hear more, that’s kind of wrapping up for today. If you want to hear more, I will talk briefly about what I do in the morning brief and I am online. I’ve offered this Steve seen in the however you got this, you’ve seen in the comment section. I’ve given you the zoom room key and the password to come in to join me tomorrow. If you want to hear me talk more and I can take your questions real time through a chat room, please join me. If you have no interest in that, stay, stay healthy, stay safe out there. And we’ll talk to you next time.
Speaker 1: (13:57)
But if you do, I want to talk to you a little bit more about the morning brief again, it’s a straddling the market open every day tomorrow. I’m making it free for folks. So use the zoom information to come on in. It’s a webinar status. So you are not on a video. You can not talk. Nobody can see you. So it’s very safe. I asked that people use call signs. So you know, something acceptable socially acceptable. Please just use the call sign like we do in the flying world. I don’t want to know who’s listening. It doesn’t matter if you want to be there, be there. If you don’t, don’t the we’re going to basically, there’s a chat window. If you want to say a few words back and forth with some folks and have a discussion, that’s great. I’ll chime in as well.
Speaker 1: (14:36)
There’s a Q and a window. That’s also open. So if you want to ask a question, that’s where that goes. I basically start, the brief was about 20 minutes of exactly what’s going on with our tactical and strategical deck, excused, strategic and tactical genetics. Excuse me, objectives of the day where we’re going to go around and talk about some specific things with what’s going on in the market. After a 6% sell off, I will talk about the premarket action. I will talk about the, the markets around the world. We’ll go through all of that stuff from a longterm perspective. As we get close to the open, I will switch to a short term perspective. If there are day traders out there or want to hear about some trades I’m looking at, we’ll talk about that. We do have a daily day trading challenge. That’s more for fun.
Speaker 1: (15:17)
You can do it for real money or play money, or just throw a name in there and pick it longer. Short. It’s kind of easy. It’s kind of fun. Keeps it interesting while the market opens. But again, the focus is longterm investing and that’s where we end up with. And I will answer your questions as well. So that’s what I have for the briefing. If you want to know a little bit more, I’m going to take you over to the on time on target now website. So you can see up here and left. If you want to know more on time on target now.com. You’ll see a picture of me. This is the podcast that I have going. Now, if you want to listen to all the episodes, I’m on Apple podcasts now on iTunes. So if you’re interested, check it out. If you’re not that’s okay too.