Transcript

Steve Ankerstar: (00:00)
Hello everyone. Steve Ankerstar here and thank you so much for listening. Again, sorry this video is out so late today, but a really fun day actually. And I think it’s Monday. Yep, that’s Monday. The, it’s tougher to keep track of that during these times. Right? But today was like tough question Monday. So it was kind of a privilege to talk to as many people as I did and no softballs today for me. You guys are asking me all kinds of tough things, which does keep it interesting for me to learn and be a good student of the game. So I was looking up all kinds of stuff today. But that’s why I’m here. So reach out. So student loan questions, how to take them, how to spend the funds, how you get ’em car buying stuff that’s been going round and round with that with a few folks.

Steve Ankerstar: (00:49)
So quite the experience if you’re of course in a position to to buy a car on now is a good time from some interesting things you can do. Such as, can I borrow from my IRA and pay off like a car loan and then pay the car payments back to my IRA instead of paying the car company? Yes you can. You’re playing with fire and you are juggling chainsaws. But if you are disciplined, you of course can do that and that would be it. Pretty savvy move. But as with anything else in the financial world, patience and discipline is that are a must. So don’t necessarily be hopping into something if you don’t, if you know, you know yourself better than anybody else, so stick with the plan and you’ll be fine. You can do stuff like that. So if you want to talk to us, things like that, I’m taking money out to buy a house.

Steve Ankerstar: (01:49)
You don’t have to do a contingent home sale. There’s all kinds of things you can look at. With that particular piece of the cares act. You have to have been financially affected and yes, you need to be able to prove that. But most people can, to be honest, if you have any questions, reach out. But that’s not what we’re talking about tonight. So let’s get the disclosure out of the way first. There’s my information, there’s my disclaimer. If you’re not a current client, afterburner financial, then you have to do your own due diligence before you use anything in this presentation. You must treat it all as financial education. So with that, I heard a term in my reading this morning, so I get up a little bit before the market opens sometimes a lot. If the future’s coming out of Europe and Asia are scary, they weren’t today.

Steve Ankerstar: (02:34)
So I was like, okay, I get to sleep in and, but I get up before the, before the market opens and that’s when I do a large portion of my research for the day. And I came across the most apropos term I have heard to date. Can you describe what we’re in? And that’s what you see for the title here. And you know, I didn’t even look at it, but for some reason I never say the word suppression. Did I spell that wrong? So I’m it literally while I’m, I’ve been here. Suppression is there only one P? Well you don’t look stupid. Nope. Two piece to us is, all right, just looks wrong. So it’s right. But yeah, the great suppression. So you’ve had, you’ve heard the terms this is worse than the great recession, which was obviously 2007 and 2009. I’ve got a slide about that.

Steve Ankerstar: (03:21)
We’re going to talk about that briefly. The great depression, OMG, the 30s and everything that went into that and comparisons of what are we going through now? Is this a going to be a recession? Will it develop into, I think that’s pretty clear, but you never know. Will it actually go all the way to a depression and what’s going to happen and what to call this thing? I can’t remember the author’s name. So all I can do is say, this is not my term. I cannot be credited with it. It was somebody else’s term and I do not see his name right now, but hopefully it blows up cause this is really an accurate not accurate. This is really a, a clever way to describe the situation I should say regardless of what you think we should stay on lockdown forever or if you’re on the other extreme that said, we did this to ourselves.

Steve Ankerstar: (04:11)
There is no doubt that we are being suppressed whether it’s by the virus or the government or some combination of the both of both. Excuse me. Yeah, suppression. What a great term and it’s cute because it runs with the other two. So with that, let’s go ahead and get started. So here’s where we are. This is a a 10 day chart there, so not zoomed out, but today seemed kind of bad for some reason. We’re only down a percent, you know, not even 2%. And I know I say only because I have empathy that yes these numbers are real and the larger portfolio, the bigger as these things affect you. But from an overall perspective, we’ve kind of chilled out to more normal like moves if you will. And the day was going along pretty good. It was down big in the morning, kind of trucked up higher there for awhile and kind of sold off into the day as the oil market went code crazy.

Steve Ankerstar: (05:06)
We’ll talk about that here in a second. But we did finish down Vic’s finished up again. Thank you oil. I didn’t paste the future’s in here but the futures are already back up. I have not read what’s going on in the oil market but I do know that earlier today, and I love the text I got from one of my bros where he said, can you believe they are paying you to take oil off their hands? So futures contracts went negative today. So for those that invest with me, you know I use options and I’m a seller of options, not a buyer. Buyers of options are for speculators and people are limited capital kind of people. That’s not us. We have the capital, we have the stock. We are going to be the ones selling the options. I do not mess with futures at all. And they one reason why is the difference between options and futures and futures.

Steve Ankerstar: (05:57)
You actually have to take possession of the contract. Yeah. If you’re an orange juice futures, yeah. Better have some place to put the orange juice. If you’re an oil speakers and you get stuck with the contract, at the end of the day, you’re taking the oil. It’s showing up on your doorstep. That’s your problem. Okay. So if you don’t have the facilities for that, which is why, back to what my bro said earlier is it’s like, Hey, you ready to be a gazillionaire? If you’ve got places to store all this oil that people were paying to take off their hands today when the contracts went negative, pretty amazing first time in history and it was just entertaining to watch. Unfortunately, things like that bring a drama into the market and also bring the indices down. So that’s kind of why we saw the big sell off today. It’s not something I’m going to sit around worrying about because oil is not going to stay at a 0 million cents on the barrel.

Steve Ankerstar: (06:48)
It just can’t stay there. It’s going to have trouble, I think, stay in below 20 longterm. But as part of the great suppression theme, yeah, I can’t go drive around in all my, you know, ugly American who has a bunch of cars and likes to drive everywhere. Whether we should or we shouldn’t do that. You can argue that with yourself. But we do and we didn’t, we don’t get to go drive around all over the place then we are not burning the chief guests that’s out there. So is it going to go away? Probably not soon, but I do think the opportunities, and I said this to a client today and we’ll see, but the opportunities in the oil market I think are going to today are going to be like the opportunities of the 40% excuse me, 40% flash sale. We had an equities a month ago and we’ll go to that chart in a second.

Steve Ankerstar: (07:43)
Now I did say, or I did see this in the upper left about growth seeker that’s from seeking alpha. I don’t know that person. But I did find his comment hilarious. M S is a short, they’re in the second line. That short for Morgan Stanley. And if you watch CNBC or consume any of the financial media, you will hear that. You’ll hear big firms, Goldman, Morgan, Stanley, UBS talking heads, honestly coming out and saying, you know, things like you should take profits, you should lock in your profits and Amazon because Amazon moved from like 1800 a share where let us bought it. You’re welcome. Two 2320 400. It’s just like boom, lock in those, lock in those profits. And then his comment was 10 years from now, and Amazon’s at 25,000. Yeah, Morgan Stanley locking projects now. Anyway, that’s why if you’re in Amazon, if you’re with me, most people are an Amazon with maybe even a whopping one chair.

Steve Ankerstar: (08:38)
I got that. It’s expensive. But yeah let’s have that talk 10 years from now where we should have locked in profits right now. Now I did scale out of a little bit of it. A couple of people ping me, a couple of them have the same last name as I do have. I can’t believe you sold some of my, I’m like, yeah, we had a whole lot of it. So we peeled some profits but we’re not selling out of it. To lock in the entire private. We’re just kind of rebalancing if you will. So that’s what we’ve got going on there where we are in the big market. So we talked about, I said the opportunities in oil right now when you have something as insane as oil futures going negative [inaudible] please take the oil and I will pay you for it.

Steve Ankerstar: (09:21)
I will pay you to take it from me. Yeah, that’s going to be reminiscent of the straight down shelf. We had, I think of equities, I may need to see the mid February to mid March there and I can’t remember what the total was in the end of the 35, almost 40% a straight down move. Lot of panic in that. And we bounced. A lot of peoples are still debating what kind of recovery we’re going to have. Well that’s fantastic. But I don’t know, I see the chart, I see the, if you’re seeing other letters you can probably look at any cloud and see whatever you want. Yeah. Are we safe? I don’t know. I think so. I’ve always thought so because we sold off so fast, but we’re going to have to see I’m not as excited as I was when it was a lot lower.

Steve Ankerstar: (10:07)
That was easy. You just buy, buy, buy and watch it go up from there. Now it’s a little, a little more cautious. We’re starting to get some good news with regarding the virus. The virus news is, you know, almost stabilizing and now the political blame game is starting to take the news cycle back, which you know what? The market’s kind of, don’t care about that game because that’s the game that fills the void on the major networks, which is why I don’t watch that. Yeah. I’ll call it trash. Cause most of the time it is trash. And that’s why I stick with the financial, different financial channels that are out there. And of course then I take summaries off of the internet where I can kind of surf it. I don’t have to sit and listen to people squawking all day long about politics. So when you look at this chart, the things I always bring up are the volume.

Steve Ankerstar: (10:54)
So first of all, where we are seemed like an ugly day, but we’re kind of settling it out there. And then when you look at, Oh come on, there we go. The volume, look at the volume pretty low. Most we’ve seen in a while actually I kinda liked it and it’s a Monday. Remember Mondays limit down Mondays. That’s what we did a couple of weeks in a row. So hopefully we’re starting even though the VIX is still above 30, it’s actually about 40. But you know, 30 is kind of where I draw that line of who I think we need to. You know, life is returning back to normal, look at the volume pretty low. So hopefully we’re seeing more normalization. All right. Why are people arguing that this first bottom can’t possibly be the bottom? I hear you and you can pull historical examples over and over and throw them in my face.

Steve Ankerstar: (11:46)
And before we move to the next part, I will say the difference is, is that one move that one month, the fastest move down in history is the, we rip the bandaid off. We, the collective market, you know, none of us is dumb. As all of us, we rip the bandaid off 35%. That has not happened in history that fast. So, but here’s why you’re hearing people make an argument different from mine is this is if you look at the 2007, 2009 a timeframe, again, this is the S and P there was a big move down, but it wasn’t nearly as big, nearly as big as the 35% straight down move we had. And it wasn’t a straight line either. And then of course you have the V and that’s what everybody’s talking about right here. They’re like, Oh, Steve, yeah, sure. Ha ha, yeah, this never gonna hold.

Steve Ankerstar: (12:40)
We’re gonna, we’re gonna blow pass through the March 23rd lows and then do it again because that’s what happened in [inaudible] 2007 and 2009 and things obviously worse now. So clearly that has to happen. I’m like, well you can make that argument all day long, but what you don’t see is that that very bottom point there in October 27th of 2008 I think is where this picks up. I misspoke earlier and said seven of 2008 what you’re not seeing is like $6 trillion jammed in right there. I don’t know what the amount was. There are charts out there that show you the qualitative easing when it was passed and the effects it had on the market. But I’m telling you 6 trillion was not jammed in right there, cause we’d never done that before. And that’s what we’re doing right now. And we’re still kind of working money in, even though the politics are starting to take over again.

Steve Ankerstar: (13:30)
So yeah. So that’s why I think it’s going to hold. But when you hear people making the argument or if you’re spooked and say it’s going to be a w or L recovery or whatever it is, that could happen. I’m not saying it won’t happen, I’m saying it could have, I just don’t think it’ll happen. Now what I will tell you, if we retest the lows, you’re not selling. You are, you have to hold, you bought the entire rollercoaster at the time you net. We navigate it the best we did. If it rolls all the way back down there, we are not selling because it is literally that person that March 9th of 2009 it’s like heck with this, I’m out and made the worst financial decision basically that you could have made in that whole thing. So anyhow, food for thought. So just a couple of topics.

Steve Ankerstar: (14:16)
We already kinda talked about oil. I don’t, it can’t stabilize where it is. I think that was a, an aberration, but there’s a problem, right? And we’re talking, I heard some days, some talk today I don’t fully understand about actually putting oil back into the ground. So I’ll read probably a bunch about that tomorrow morning. But yeah, it’s gonna have too much. You’ve got to put it back. Hmm. Haven’t really had that problem. That we’ve, we’re filling the reserves and the reserves are opening. I don’t know. We’ll see what’s going on in the bond market. You did. I can see now why more big of big companies, if you are strong enough to borrow money, meaning you have the credit rating to do it, you can borrow money. Now when you know your competitors can’t. So that’s why some companies are borrowing money to pay out their dividends even when they have the money already set aside for it.

Steve Ankerstar: (15:09)
It’s a similar ticket to your household situation. If somebody says, Hey, you can borrow money really cheap right now, even though you have a bunch of money, the fact that you can borrow it to kind of pay some bills or pay off a car loan or something, that’s still a smart move. So I can now see the read now. That’s not what the intention was. And we’ve seen, you know, kind of tie that in with the next bullet, the payment protection program, the absolute speeding that was going on. You know, Ruth Chris, a shake shack. They took it. It wasn’t for them. Yes, they have employees. Yes, they would be hurt. However, they also have the backing to pay their own employees to get through. They know it. We all know it. So the, let’s feel sorry for the little guy of all those chains.

Steve Ankerstar: (15:55)
I don’t think that argument holds as much water as the, they can backstop, but whether they should or whether they will or whether they feel like it is kind of up to the owners, but they, the means is there and these funds were specifically targeted for small business. So kind of let’s do the right thing and not be the person grabbing all the hand sanitizer and stock ComEd up in your garage or whatever that one plan did. Right? So that’s kind of a cooperate, if you don’t really need it, let’s get it out to the people who do and stop being graded. So as far as investing, what are we doing right now? This is a people, sometimes there’s a stock market and sometimes a market of stocks. If you hear that, it’s very much a market of stocks. Right now we’re in an earnings.

Steve Ankerstar: (16:44)
We just started earning seasons, excuse me, earning season. IBM was after the close held up. Okay. The, so what I’m doing with portfolios is again, getting into the individual stocks and being very selective, very surgical with putting money to work. I’m not buying the big indices and just putting them in the middle and closing my eyes and hoping for the best cause that could work out for like but feed me a picture. What’s the future gonna look like? No, not in three or six months. Go out two years and try to think what that’s, what does the world look like then? And then come in and buy companies are position to be better. Then they may go higher or lower the day after you bought them. And nobody really cares. You do cause you’re standing at the app, but investor’s not going to care.

Steve Ankerstar: (17:31)
You buy in and get into your point now for something that’s going to have that huge return for later on. So that’s what I’ve got for you. Shout out for the podcast. I still don’t have instructions yet to get to it because it’s not live. I only have a website hung out there for it, so there’ll be more to follow on that. So went longer than I thought. Continuing to fight the good fight, follow rules and laws that are in place, even if you disagree. We’ll fight that battle later on after the country has opened back up. But here in Texas, yeah, a little bit of a little bit afraid I’m being restored. So pretty thrilled about that. I’m pretty thrilled to be a Texan at all times. So with that, I will close and talk to you guys next time.