Transcript

Steve Ankerstar: (00:00)
Hello everyone. Steve Ankerstar here and thank you so much for listening in. Bond what a week. Overall markets end up moving right around 13% up. We’ll get to that here in a second, but another historic week, obviously some folks are still in the red. A lot of folks had didn’t do anything. If, you know, if you made no moves, obviously you’re still going to be in the red. If there were some adjustments at the bottom, then you’ve either been made whole or there’s some folks out there that are actually in the green from all this. So a lot of movement, volatility means opportunity, so lot of good stuff going on. But the big news of the day was the federal reserve shocked us again, which this is the third time that they’ve done it. The first time did the emergency a rate cut?

Steve Ankerstar: (00:47)
I believe it was on a Sunday where they cut half a point not too long ago. Then they took the rates to zero again on the weekend. Was kind of the second shock to the system. And then this morning, I don’t know of anybody that was even talking about this happening. But they came out with a two point 3 trillion. Yes. With the T we’re starting to use to that number and a bond program that basically I said saves the bond market. It does a lot of things. I’m really only going to talk about the bond market because that’s what is on your guys’s mind because many of you have individual bonds and those are deep into the red. I got that. Not all of them, but there’s a handful of energy slash shopping retail, I should say bonds. Yeah, they’re, they’re deep in the red.

Steve Ankerstar: (01:33)
So this will help that. I know I’ve been saying it, but they just went from $50 billion a day, which you would think that’s a lot of money. Two yeah, 2.3 with a T, a trillion with a T on top of that. So a lot of good stuff’s happening here to prop the market up while not just the stock market with the bond market, but while we go through the recovery, I’ve taken care of the health care crisis that we have at hand. The bond market closed early today and sock Mark in his clothes all day tomorrow. And so as the stock market, so it’s officially the weekend for markets due to a good Friday and Easter. So some well-deserved time off. And yes, I’m taking advantage of that. The there’s my information, there’s my disclaimer. If you’re not a current client of Afterburner Financial, you have to take everything in this presentation as financial education and do your own due diligence before acting on your own portfolio.

Steve Ankerstar: (02:26)
So with that, let’s get started. Okay. I said we’re making history. What’s it been six weeks from the entirety of this move up and down? Crazy. Well, you’ve got some 1930s numbers at the top there and that was a, you know, the, those were recovery numbers out of the great depression. So again, these are the best weeks all time. And you can see if you go down to the fifth one on the list, that was March 27th, that was the week after the lows of March 23rd, which I was a Thursday. If you remember that, so excuse me. So that was another, that was a 13% in a week, kind of move, have another one from the great depression era. And then we had this week, four day weeks. We don’t get that fifth day to see where it would have gone, but, and then we have 74 and then more great depression stuff.

Steve Ankerstar: (03:21)
So really pretty amazing times. And the amazing move ups, if you had those two weeks together, just those two weeks were plus 26%. So, well, we’ll zoom out to show you the chart, but when you get into, this is my daily chart. I expanded it yet. Once again, this is a 20 day chart. Again, the white spaces are the actual days and then you can see the volume in the, in the, in the grade out the bottom. So volume starting to chill a little bit. That’s good. That’s really good. That means people are settling down, settling into a groove. You can see in the upper left best a we for the S and P since 74 you’ve got the, everything was up around a percent today in the VIX. So we’ve talked a little bit about is, you know, it’s 40 and it keeps on coming down.

Steve Ankerstar: (04:08)
So really you want that below 30 before I would say anything is getting back to normal. And that may or may not happen anytime soon. Not trying to promise you a Rose garden, if you will, just saying things are trending in the right direction for the markets as well as money flow, as well as volatility, as well as volume. You know, the health care numbers you can follow that along with mainstream media. There are good news stories out there, so there is positivity in the air and that’s why you’ve seen, you know, markets move before the for the you know, the, the news about the coronavirus test. So that’s why you’re seeing what you’re seeing. If you back out a little bit, excuse me again. Yeah, it was crazy. Right? Markets always go up. This is the one year, look, if the S and P 500, there’s the fallen off the cliff 30, 35 plus percent, almost 40 there the entire day.

Steve Ankerstar: (05:04)
And then you’ve seen the move. We’ve made backup. So are we out of the woods? No, that’s not what I’m trying to tell you. What I am trying to tell you is all of the signs are pointing towards returning to normal. So if this, if you will, if you were looking at like maybe a medical chart, and this is not a perfect analogy, I understand that, but the heart attack is behind us right now, Erica or the the earthquake is behind us. If you want to use that, will there be aftershocks? I do expect that a three day weekend, a three and a half, you know, if you count the bond market today wow. Mondays are generally the, Hey, let’s limit up, Hey, let’s limit down, you know, because we will have all weekend to focus or over-focus on things if you will.

Steve Ankerstar: (05:49)
But we’ll see. I’m happy with where we are. I’m extremely pleased that things are all trending towards a more normalized a scenario and we didn’t move 3% plus today in the market. So if we can just kind of stop doing that, then it allows for a little bit more of a slow surgical approach. I don’t know how many of you follow along, but some of those that send in money, especially the couple I talked to last night whose money made it in just under the absolute wire and I took it on and showed that in the middle right along with mine a couple of weeks ago. There’s some been some times where I have not communicated as much as I want to. I want it to be more relationship based, but there just hasn’t been time. Those folks that I owe a phone call to that I’ve expressed some concerns or you know, how they want to go forward.

Steve Ankerstar: (06:38)
I cannot live up to that obligation tonight. I’m far too tired. But I will after I sleep in tomorrow call around tomorrow and check on folks. So if you watch this tonight please give me a few minutes of your time tomorrow and if you have concerns that you’ve addressed and then let’s talk about those and we’ll, we’ll plot the way forward. So that’s the plan. All right, let’s talk about the federal reserve. If you don’t bond chairman Powell, I’ve never met him personally, so I can’t say I know him, but that who is, that’s who that picture is. And if you kind of follow along, I think he’s done a great job the whole time. Trump kind of picked a fight with him early on and you know, okay, fair. Who hasn’t he picked a fight with. But the purpose of the federal reserve is twofold, obviously to keep unemployment down and inflation, inflation in check.

Steve Ankerstar: (07:30)
And they do that primarily by driving short term interest rates, which is the rates that the banks lend to each other. Okay. That’s, that’s your cookie cutter purpose of the federal reserve that will get you your B and your MBA. They do other things, which we will have to be able to talk to, which they’re doing right now, which will get you that AA or a plus in your MBA workout there. But he’s the chairman. The fed is independent and that’s for a reason. And if you listen to him at all, and this, I know this is boring stuff to a lot of people, but it’s actually fascinating to me. I thought his speech was the best federal reserve president, chairman, excuse me, speech I had ever heard. And that’s after listening to Greenspan, Bernank, Yellen, I mean some legends of industry, some literal masters of the financial universe and pals speech today was very impressive.

Steve Ankerstar: (08:25)
He had delivered, he had a prepared remarks, which you’ve read, which of course those are all carefully thought through, but then he took questions and the questions were not softballs. The questions were actually, I w I was impressed. It was more debates out of questions, even though he’s the only one taking the questions. And he navigated that really impressively. So I’m sure there’s a clip of that on CNBC. If you want to go back and try to find, if they, it’s not too long, it’s by half an hour. If you want to be a nerd. Yes. give her the lesson. You gave me a lot of confidence that he knows exactly what he is doing out there. The one thing you said delete it off is our country’s highest priority. And this is a quote our country’s highest priority must be to address this public health crisis crisis, providing care for the ill and limiting the further spread of the virus.

Steve Ankerstar: (09:15)
So that’s pretty impressive. The one person who is pulling financial strings out there along with, I would say his cohort, that the treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, you know, they’re talking about the healthcare crisis primary. And that’s, you know, I’ve kind of thought to myself, I haven’t done a lot of that and how I presented my material. It’s kind of a yes, of course we’re talking about that first. We’re looking at through that lens, but I haven’t said it, so I should probably start saying it. But yes, as we deal with the national emergency and the healthcare crisis, we’re looking at through the lens of that as to how it affects the market. So I thought he did a good job of getting that up front and answering the questions. A lot of the answers to those questions are going to be determined by the virus and how quickly, obviously you’re seeing a push out there, not only by the president, but by many of us that believe that the American economy needs to let the beast eat right.

Steve Ankerstar: (10:08)
Let everybody get out and do their thing. Cause that’s what America is built upon. But obviously there’s risks, there’s risk of Oh you know, in a secondary way of a flare. Ups were not really through the first one. So I’m getting ahead of myself. But when, when it comes to that point and we do start opening the, the autonomy backup. Sure. There’s going to be some risks there. There’s going to be people that will run from their houses like rats out of a cage. There will be people that won’t come out and I don’t blame them. So, yeah, to each his own at that point. But we’ll see how the numbers are and in the medical world and you know, all the metrics are being tracked by the mainstream media. That’s, yeah, that’s good. Well, we’ll see. And it may lead to other policies later on. Bond.

Steve Ankerstar: (10:49)
Maybe we have to stay at home again. We shall see. But two point 3 trillion. The only real details I’m going to go into is he did we talk about shenanigans yesterday in the bond market and how the bigger companies were issuing bonds, emergency issuing of debt to get money by selling bonds and then turn around paying that in a dividend. I saw, I’ve seen one source today, so I haven’t validated it and I will never use anything. One sort bond the internet. That the certain portion of this three, two point 3 trillion package is called main street loans. And the main main street loans specifically prohibit paying dividends and buying back stock. And there was one other one that you can’t do in there and I can’t remember, but I only saw that one source so I can’t pass that on as fact because it seems like that should have been in several sources if it were true and not everything you read on the internet or see on TV is true, but other things are shoring up.

Steve Ankerstar: (11:55)
There’s companies out there that have greater than the number of employees that was allowed under the PPP that came out. The payroll protection program. So this focuses on that group and has this specific pot of money. And it also shores up the viral protection program which opened last Friday for applications. Money should be start to hit today. If you’re in that you know, it’s, you can apply now you have all the way up to June 30th to apply. The government has said there will be plenty of money and we will worry about what’s forgiven and what you have to pay back later on is just do what you have to do to get through things. Local banks, you can apply it more than one. You’ll be assigned a loan officer, there’ll be an application, you can get your application and you can go back and update it working with your loan officer. Bond.

Steve Ankerstar: (12:42)
With it, like with any loan, there will be a loan document. So as soon as you sign a loan document, that’s when the loan starts. And that’s when, if you are multiplying multiple places, that’s when you would let the others know that you already signed with somebody else. It, we’ve been told this is all your risky when you’re told this, that you should not worry about your credit score by applying for several loans at different locations. I would imagine that that’s true, but I also don’t think that the system is smart enough to be able to not have that affect the score. I don’t think they get an adjusted. Maybe they can, I don’t know. And I don’t even know who they is, but be a little interesting. Anyway, so that’s what we’ve got. That was the big news in the morning.

Steve Ankerstar: (13:27)
The other big news was unemployment. Get that every last day of the week. So a 6.6 a new jobless claims, so 6.6 million, sorry, you don’t want to leave them off. That’s a lot. But 5 million was expected. So it really wasn’t that far off of the number that was expected. So again, that’s why it didn’t really speak to the markets. And when you always hear me talk about forces acting on markets, obviously a two point 3 trillion injection into the markets two and you know, I didn’t talk about it, but buy a bonds including local and municipal bonds. So local governments, state governments that are starting to waffle under the situation, they’ll go in there and buy up those bonds and give a, you know, so there’s money available for that. And also investment grade bonds and also high yield, which high yield has been hit tremendously because all those bonds were investment grade three weeks ago and they just dropped a credit level two ideal. Bond.

Steve Ankerstar: (14:22)
So there’s money out there to buy that stuff up and they’re limited to, I think 25% of entire companies bonds. But that’s a lot. I mean, that is a lot. So that’s all I’ve got for you. If you want more, you can check the the web out for specifics on the bond stuff. But like I said yesterday, don’t expect the bonds to snap back. Expect them to heal over time as the money flows in and the bonds are getting bought and the bond market’s closed them off. So don’t, don’t worry about tomorrow. Worry about next week. Lastly, this is the next, the last one where I will be getting information out to everybody in this format before I switch to the podcast. And I will have something out this weekend, either Saturday or Sunday on more information on the podcast where to find it, blah, blah, blah, and be signing off of this particular platform except for clients on. So that’s all I’ve got for you. Stay safe and healthy out there. Keep fighting the good fight and we will talk to you next time.