Transcript

Steve Ankerstar: (00:01)
Hello everyone. Steve Ankerstar here and thank you so much for listening in. Well what a Monday. We’re used to Mondays being big, huge down days and we finally got a big huge update on Monday. Car. Started with the futures and just kinda cut, kept climbing higher for the rest of the day. So great news, right? So we’re going to cover where we are, where we’re going. Some key interesting points along the way and also a topic I wanted to address real quickly today is if you’re in the mood to buy a car right now, now I do want to appear not to be a giant jerk by, I know some people are financially strapped right now and the last thing they’re worried about is buying a car. But if your cashflow supports it during times of economic strife, like we’re in now. At least that’s the projection.

Steve Ankerstar: (00:57)
Not separate that from what the market’s doing, but economically the car dealerships are starting to hurt and which means their moment more motivated too. So cars. I will tell you my story from 2007 to 2009 and show you some what I’m looking at now just real quick on a how to buy a car during time of crisis. You can save yourself literally $15,000 if you’re in the, in the mood and financial able to buy. So just throwing that out there, there’s my information, there’s my disclaimer. If you’re not a current client of Afterburner Financial, you have to take everything in this presentation that’s financial education and do your own due diligence before acting on your own portfolio. So with that, let’s get started. Okay, here is, I expanded this out a little bit because it’s instructive. Again, all the indices were up about 7% across the board today.

Steve Ankerstar: (01:47)
Small caps up even higher up at 8% volatility’s dropping down. I’ll have another slide to show you that normally I show the five day pattern. This is an 11 day pattern if I, my math is correct. So for a little over two weeks, but you knew it starts with March 23rd with this kind of the low that we had, the three day up pattern, cause I said generally marks the bottom and that’s like the fourth white one over. As you can see that big three-day up pattern. And again, when I said that marks the low, it doesn’t mean that that level is the low, it just adds validation validation to the previous low which was at March 23rd low all the way at the bottom of the screen. And what you saw from the three day move up was a little bit of meandering. I’ve called a consolidation.

Steve Ankerstar: (02:31)
That’s good. And then we had kind of a small, you know, leaky market, I called it on Friday where things just kind of sold off as people were busy trying to get the payroll protection program loans do all the paperwork for that. And then started to say some hope towards the end of the day as bank of America was the first one to market of the major banks. And then the other banks started coming online and it looked like there was actually going to be, this money was going to be had. I will cover some updates on that here in a minute. So why the big move up? It’s my thesis. The big move up was the injection of all this money into the economy. Or the hope that it now presents. There was some, obviously you saw the headline on the decreasing number of cases or deaths.

Steve Ankerstar: (03:22)
I can’t remember exactly which one was out of New York, I think was deaths actually. That gave everybody hope that maybe we’re past the peak. I don’t know. I mean that’s one data point. I wouldn’t hang my hat on that, but it gives people hope and we’re starting to see some other smart things out there. The mask thing is starting to go into effect. I’d imagine one town in Texas has already made it mandatory. I’d imagine that we’re going to see that and end up all wearing masks here shortly, probably this week. But Hey, it’s a w that’s how you beat this thing. So you may not like it and you think it’s dumb, doesn’t matter. Do it. Fight the good fight, win the war and put this thing behind us and we can get backtracking on all of that is good news.

Steve Ankerstar: (04:02)
And remember, markets, anticipate the anticipations of others. So that’s why you flow in. That’s why you see these big moves up is a repricing of unemployment. Is unemployment going to go up from here? Absolutely. What’s priced in though, what’s priced in is a 30% unemployment rate, 30%. We’re like, it’s six and we’ve priced in 30. So if we start slowing down and don’t actually get to 30 in the markets lens that you look through, it’s good news. So you can get in that good news, bad news, bad news, good news, blah, blah, blah. But if the numbers aren’t worse than projected, that is good news. So that’s a big, a market. Repricing commentary, pry didn’t need to go into that. But when you zoom out one year left to right, just take a look at, you obviously were very clear with the big from highest to the trough.

Steve Ankerstar: (05:02)
Again, I think it was 38 or 39%, I can’t remember the exact number. To hit that low. And then you saw the three day up pattern started meandering from there. What’s interesting though is this two 60, if you just look at the two 65 level we’re at, before there was a ceiling, we hit that ceiling on the three day up pattern and then kind of sold off. And I will tell you that markets tend to overshoot. If you’ve heard my theory, they, you know, it’s why simply react when you have the time and energy to overreact. Okay? That’s one theory. So that leads to some overshooting of the me also. We are dealing with computers, high frequency trading you get, you can never beat them. Obviously you can’t react quicker than a computer, but what you can do is capitalize on the overreaction because those things operate so quickly.

Steve Ankerstar: (05:54)
They force overshoots. And I think once we’re kind of done and studies, you know, the academics take a hard look at the pace of the sell off. Maybe they can go in and decipher the volume of high frequency trading versus what I would call regular trading. I would like to think that that’s probably able to be done and I would be interested to hear the answer because that would also kind of help set expectations for the future. Are we going to see moves this quickly? I mean, I sit and stare at it every day, all day and it moved lightning fast. So I couldn’t even imagine somebody out there trying to do, manage their own stuff on their own. Right. I mean, I think unless you your job, but you don’t have anything to do at your job or you can stare at the computer all day.

Steve Ankerstar: (06:46)
I just don’t see how you do it. But that’s my 2 cents. But if we see in the future, we can kind of price in these quicker moves. Then there are some other things we might take advantage of if we see the next one. So just a little bit of theory there. But what I liked is again, the volatility, the volume down at the bottom right, you saw the big kind of hard tag volume, decent volume today. But again, I would think we’re going to see that taper off as we go into the week. Where do we go from here? I said things tend to overshoot. Yeah, I would imagine. Don’t be, don’t think that. Okay. We’re, we’re rocketing higher, we’re stair stepping higher. It’s interesting if anything I would expect to stair-step lower and then kind of a rocket higher maybe towards Friday when, when these checks start hitting the bank accounts of the businesses that are out there to help support through this time and in turn the employees that since it’s the payroll that is being protected out there.

Steve Ankerstar: (07:41)
So here’s your, these are two separate headlines. Don’t try to put these together. I should have put a divider in between. There’s your big numbers up, volatility only slightly falling. So that’s a topic for another day. But it’s something that you definitely need. Well, I definitely need people who manage money for a living, need the food, know exactly where the volatility is. So it’s nice to see a decrease, but that’s not an out of the woods number yet. We need to get back into the teens to get anything. So no resembling normal. Now. Increased volatility means opportunity. You saw me make some moves in your portfolios today. I don’t like to buy a lot on big updates because they tend to overshoot. So I expect to do most of my buying tomorrow as the market comes in, especially if we get a three to 4%.

Steve Ankerstar: (08:26)
So often it would be, that would be a better buying setup than buying just on a big update. But there’s a couple of companies that I bought today pretty heavily and you’ll see that in your portfolios. Okay. So where literally, so when you back back up, so overall from the absolute peak, the Dow was down 23% and the S and P is down 21% so again, if we have a couple more updates, that’s what’s interesting about this level. And if you the video for from yeah, after the three day app pattern, it’s like, you know, we’re about to exit the bear market. Right. And it sure doesn’t feel like it. Right. And I agree with you. So I don’t really think we’re gonna exit here. But I do think we’re going to continue to consolidate to a new, higher level. Which is nice. So I think we’re, I’m pretty happy now if you want some success stories that there’s a lot of red in your portfolios, but if you go in, I did a lot of buying again on March 23rd down right at that near the bottom.

Steve Ankerstar: (09:24)
I think it’s 22nd or the day before the absolute low. I did most of my personal buying. Yeah, we’re up 25% in the Dow from the absolute low and 21% from in the S. And. P. I remember up numbers are a little different. Up percentages are smaller than down percentages. We’ll go through that math and other day, but if you go down 10% up 10%, you’re still down money. If you go up 10% down to a percentage, still down money because the way that works, but I mean significant moves, but there has also been a ton of money made so hopefully a that just wanted to talk to that there about the the math of where we are and hopefully we just kind of stabilize in this area for a while, reduce that volatility and then let the, I’m market stairstep higher so cares, act updates.

Steve Ankerstar: (10:13)
Here’s what I want to talk about. So the money, I have it from three different sources and then I was on a web webcast just a few minutes ago. It sounds like the story from most people is next Monday is when you’re going to see the stimulus checks for the businesses start to show up. So again, Friday was the application last Friday’s, you know, one business day ago, three, eight calendar days ago. And so it’s going to take about a week for this money to actually hit. Of course, when it hits, that’s a cash infusion and or an injection and the economy, which that is good news. We’re probably still going to be on lockdown so you can’t spend your money, but at least the companies are going to be a little bit healthier. So the IDL, so there’s the payment protection program. That’s the two and a half months of pay that seems to be working very well.

Steve Ankerstar: (11:07)
If you have any questions, reach out the EIDL, which is the emergency disaster loan, that whole, that’s where you get the 10 K up front. I’ve heard from the webcast that that system is not really moving. So if you’re using that program and you’re getting some movement, let me know so I can get an update on that. If you are faced with unemployment, if you do get laid off and you have unemployment goes through the state, so you have to go through the normal state application. And then the I can’t remember the exact term, but the advanced unemployment, if you will, that part that is tied to particularly this pandemic is the six, an extra 600 a week. So 2,400 a month, right. So, I mean decent money. So get whatever the state has to offer then this should, this should tack onto that.

Steve Ankerstar: (11:57)
I don’t know of anyone who’s actually doing that. I will give you an update on if that’s working as advertised, if I can get a data point. Okay. That’s it for the cares act update. Lastly, thoughts on buying a car. Again, if you’re not in a position, tune out. Now, my bad, I’m not trying to, you know, be ugly here, but if you do have the cashflow and you are in, particularly in a market for a car, when the D, when the dealerships get in trouble is during these financial crises times and you know, I’m not, you know, don’t look at the picture of just yet. I mean, but think a 2007 to 2009, I moved from Alaska to Alabama. I moved from Alaska to Mississippi where the nearest large town was Tuscaloosa, Alabama roll tide. And I went car shopping and I looked in January of 2009 we hadn’t really hit the bottom yet, but at that time dealerships were on quotas already.

Steve Ankerstar: (12:54)
They had to move 10 cars a month and I was getting all this through folks in new people running dealerships. So they had to move 10 cars a month in January of 2009. Otherwise they were faced with closing and then reopening later on or maybe even not. So it was a per car quota that they had. And I bought, I went in on the last day of January. It was a Sunday, January 31st in 2009 and went in that afternoon to buy a car. And sure enough, I felt like I stole it. Many of you who know me personally, I’ve seen me drive this black Mercedes E350 for well over a decade now. I just retired at the other day, actually, literally drove it to salvage drove that car into the ground, absolutely love that. Was fantastic, but I got it for about 20% off of what they were asking.

Steve Ankerstar: (13:47)
And it was also, you know how I like to buy cars, I like to buy him off a two year lease. So the maximum value there, I mean if you’re into older cars and kind of doing the Dave Ramsey thing, knock yourself out. If you want to do that, you get the most value. I got that. If you are trying to have a little bit of a nicer vehicle, you combined new the plan on holding the car for 10 years. That’s what we do as a family. I like new cars but guess what? You’re marrying them. You’re not dating them. You can’t have car add, you can’t. The next pretty car that drives by you can’t be off. Look, you know going after it. So treat it like a marriage when you buy a new car, if that’s your thing, if you kind of want to hit the in between where I think the best value for what you get is that buying off of two year lease.

Steve Ankerstar: (14:34)
So you get a car that’s got generally 30 to 40,000 miles on it. It’s dealer maintained, it’s certified pre owned. When you go into buy this car, they have all of the paperwork, all the maintenance records, you know it’s being taken care of them and that lease cars pay up for the privilege of doing that. It’s far more expensive than owning. I know that a couple of you went yes, and I can prove it to you. Bring it is all I can say. It’s very expensive way to do business, but if you have car add where you have to have a new car every two years, then you’re right [inaudible] you have very expensive habits and you’re doing the least expensive of a very expensive habit that’s not most people. So certified premium, they will kick the warranty out, whatever the original warranty was out. They generally extend that for several thousand miles, a couple of years.

Steve Ankerstar: (15:23)
You get everything brand new. Basically you can write your own ticket on a lot of the certified pre-owned stuff if you want new things or upgrades. So that’s kind of how to focus it now. What’s going on right now as far as deals? I’m looking for a truck. And of course I said truck out loud, but like one of my daughters and my Facebook feed blows up, which actually for truck ads, which I actually like, I know a lot of people can’t stand targeted advertising. I do, I don’t care if it’s Alexa listening, the actual Google Alexa, not my daughter. But however, the those powers that be hear me talk, think and talk about things and they blow up my Facebook feed with the ads. I like that because you’re right, I was just thinking about that. So let’s get on it and make a decision.

Steve Ankerstar: (16:06)
So I’m looking at some higher end trucks and those are getting some rebates there. Zero like GMC has 0% financing. So I would expect that as a minimum, if you’re going out there for new car, you’re going to get 0% financing and you should be getting some form of rebate. Now, rebates come from what I called the, the mother company that big GM Dodge Ram. The, excuse me. Dodge. Those are the ones that come in the big rebates. And then there’s a smaller rebate often at the dealership level, which is where you can shop around. I remember a lot of people buy cars within 20 mile radius of their house. You can buy a car anywhere across the United States. When we brought up, when we bought Irene first Sequoia, we were living in Mississippi and we bought it in Roswell, New Mexico.

Steve Ankerstar: (16:59)
Somebody out there is motivated to sell a car. I deal only with internet salespeople. If I walk onto the lot, I’ll deal with whoever walks out. But the only person I’m really negotiating with is internet sales. So time I, this is not a, an ad for the Mac cake. I don’t actually know the right by me. I don’t really know how that’s pronounced, but this popped up. I’m going to, are you kidding me? You got a $36,500 truck. Okay. Maybe you could walk off the lot at 33 but total savings of 13 grand. Brand new. I’m just 2019. Okay. They got move it. I got that. $23,000. That’s, that’s pretty amazing. And that’s before you start negotiating. You walk in with a trade in of any sort or say, well I’ll give you 500 less. They’re going to take it that they need to move trucks.

Steve Ankerstar: (17:46)
So just whatever you’re in the market for, if you’re in the market, we think, okay, locked down, how am I going to go buy a car? Well, here’s the scoop. They literally, I happened to have gone out and driven all the trucks already that, you know, I did that about two months ago. That I want to buy and I’m just waiting for the right time to buy it. Well, I’m happy I didn’t buy it back then. Cause I literally, I’m going to be saving thousands. It’s not tens of thousands, you know, over 10,000 by just having waited. And again, that was more luck, but it’s here. So take advantage of the opportunity. Just like when stocks go on sale, take advantage of the opportunity they will bring, they will do a contactless transaction. They will bring the vehicle to your house. You can test drive it, Hey, kind of have to have some idea what you want.

Steve Ankerstar: (18:34)
Right. But if you can shop online doing a lot of that lately, they’ll bring the vehicle to your house, let you test drive it. And if you are in the mood to buy and do a trade in, they will value your trade in. They will take it if they need to and go do the service, you know, check it out. If they’re back at the at the main place and bring it back to you or they can, you know, take a look at it and offer you something right there and make this happen in your driveway. Mean these people are motivated there. There’s a lot of things that are going to change coming out of this a new world we live in. Once again, we’re off you know, most of the day, but yeah, things are going to get efficient you know, vehicles to your door.

Steve Ankerstar: (19:16)
Right. How about that? That’s pretty cool in my book. So just wanted to throw that out there. You know, the part of, you know, I do talk finance things as far as buying cars and houses and how to be smart with your money. That’s the financial planner part of me speaking, not necessarily the investment manager, but Hey, it’s the all set. It’s the same in my book. Dollars is dollars is I like to say, and saving them is just as good as ours. So with that you’ve, you’ve heard a lot of videos with me. I, I’ll take you through to the finish line here. So as long as volatility stays high, I’ll be done a video probably every other day, you know, not days. Before I kind of go back to the normal of only sending one out when I need to.

Steve Ankerstar: (19:56)
But Hey, here’s, here’s my ad. I don’t really try to drum up business a whole lot, but I do think I have walked this through this particular portion of the market turbulence and social disturbance very well. And I’m very good at my job and I’m very passionate about my job. I love helping people and I’m pretty good with numbers. Hopefully check your account. You’ve seen that. I know they’re down assignment I’m talking about down versus the overall market is how I should be measured there. Just a little bit. If you have other people out there that are not happy with their financial planner or they kind of don’t know what to do and they’re nervous about reaching out, I still am in the market. I can take another handful of clients before I really either have to shut down a new clients or put some high minimum out there.

Steve Ankerstar: (20:41)
I won’t drop anybody. I have some no worries there, but at some point I won’t be able to just keep the Gates open. So anyhow, take a look. If if somebody comes to mind, have them reach out. Now it’s kind of the time to do that so we can get their portfolios positioned. So when the market does move back higher, they take, they take advantage of that. So with that probably went way too long. Is that normally do American pride keep fighting the good fight? Wear your mask? Will when knows when those orders come out? Stay home? Try to stay sane with your family and we’ll talk to you next time. Bye.